Table of contents
Projections
Climate change is not the only driver defining future economic losses. Increased adaptive capacity due to adaptive measures but also increased vulnerability due to economic development and (in Europe to a lower degree) demographic evolutions will define future economic, social and environmental losses from weather and climate-related events. In addition, there is a high inter-annual variability of extreme events. Modelling all these effects with sufficient accuracy is not possible. Under similar economic conditions, the impact of climate change can be estimated.
For Europe, this is for example done by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission in the PESETA IV project. PESETA IV looks at different hazards like heat and cold waves (human impact), windstorms, water resources, droughts, river and coastal floods and wildfires, but also at different sectors and systems like forests, agriculture or energy. With climate measures in line with the Paris Agreement, 60 000 annual fatalities due to heatwaves can be avoided by the end of the century compared to a 3°C temperature increase scenario compared to the pre-industrial level and annual drought losses would be reduced by EUR 20 billion per year. For flooding, damage from river floods can be halved to around EUR 24 billion per year and economic losses from coastal flooding could be lowered by more than EUR 100 billion per year in 2100.
Other estimates can be found i the G20 Risk Atlas, where for the European Union (EU-27) and the G20 countries like France, Germany, Italy or Turkey, economic impacts for different sectors are estimated under different climate scenarios. Only for river flooding and in a relatively moderate temperature increase scenarios, expected annual damages can amount to roughly EUR 21 billion by mid-century and EUR 30-40 billion end of century. Under a high emissions scenario, losses could reach over EUR 70 billion by the end of the century.